A Guide to What Never Changes
- 书名： A Guide to What Never Changes
- 作者： Morgan Housel
- 简介：
- 出版时间
- ISBN：
- 分类：
- 出版社： Penguin Publishing Group
- PC 地址：https://weread.qq.com/web/reader/edd42633643425f346e3436376536344f32356c366b6e366b6632686f43596fda4
Note
The Psychology of Money 的作者 Morgan Housel 的新书，核心主题是想告诉我们：这个世界变化太快，没法有效预测未来，但我们可以回看历史来找到那些大概率不会变的策略，并用这些策略更从容应对未来。
作者通过 23 个小章节来依次介绍了他认为很有价值的策略，并辅以历史上真实案例，然后总结得出了他的观点，非常有参考价值。
Introduction
世界变化太快，每天都有新玩意儿出现，让人们应接不暇。但关注这些事物是不理智的，没人能预测未来，我们应该关注那些贯穿历史中不变的事物，这些事物大概率在未来也是不变的。比如贝索斯永远关注的都是“价格更低”、“配送更便捷”，这是零售行业不变的基本盘。 这就是作者想表达的 Same as Ever。
Quote
Change captures our attention because it’s surprising and exciting. But the behaviors that never change are history’s most powerful lessons, because they preview what to expect in the future.
本书主题：那些抛开了机会、运气、意外成分，在 1000 个平行宇宙中的 999 个都适用的生存法则。
Quote
That’s what this book is about: In a thousand parallel universes, what would be true in every single one?
Hanging by a Thread
If you know where we’ve been, you realize we have no idea where we’re going. 历史是一环扣一环推进到的现在，未来不可预测。
世界是线形发展的，任何事物我们都只能看到其现状，但往前追溯的话很难搞清楚为何能发展成如今这样。
Quote
So much of the world hangs by a thread. An irony of studying history is that we often know exactly how a story ends, but we have no idea where it began.
第一点：不要依据当前和过去发生了什么事去预测未来，而是依据人们的行为和本性。
Quote
I try to keep two things in mind in a world that’s this vulnerable to chance and accident. One is highlighting this book’s premise—to base predictions on how people behave rather than on specific events.
第二点：未来可能发生任何事情，把想象力放宽一点，历史上任何大的拐点可能都因为一些小的事情引发。 比如美国建国时期乔治华盛顿在长岛会战的胜利得益于顺风、一战导火索之一的 lusitania 船难是因为船长为省钱关掉了第四蒸汽室、罗斯福被暗杀失败后当上总统推行经济政策让美国强大。就像 人类群星闪耀时 里讲述的一样。
Quote
The other thing to keep in mind is to have a wider imagination. No matter what the world looks like today, and what seems obvious today, everything can change tomorrow because of some tiny accident no one’s thinking about.
Risk Is What You Don’t See
We are very good at predicting the future, except for the surprises—which tend to be all that matter. 未来不可预测，一点点风险会乱全盘。
看不见的才叫风险，当风险降临时，会带来远超预期的破坏。
Quote
As financial advisor Carl Richards says, “Risk is what’s left over after you think you’ve thought of everything.”
应对风险的方式之一，不是做预测，而是直接按照最坏情况做应对，即便可能永远不会发生。
Quote
Nassim Taleb says, “Invest in preparedness, not in prediction.” That gets to the heart of it.
在个人资产上留比最大预期还多的现金，在个人债务上降低最大能承受的债务。
Quote
Two, realize that if you’re only preparing for the risks you can envision, you’ll be unprepared for the risks you can’t see every single time.
Expectations and Reality
The first rule of happiness is low expectations. 预期管理非常重要。
个人的贪婪很容易有尽头，但互相攀比带来的嫉妒则无止境，永远有更富有的人。
Quote
Investor Charlie Munger once noted that the world isn’t driven by greed; it’s driven by envy.
贫富差距的增大，再加上社交网络统治世界，不同收入水平的人能够看到彼此，加剧了人们因攀比带来的焦虑造成的不幸福。
Quote
Today’s economy is good at generating three things: wealth, the ability to show off wealth, and great envy for other people’s wealth.
感情中的预期管理，双方都只管付出而不考虑回报时，才能达到最佳状态。
Quote
It only works when both people want to help their spouse while expecting nothing in return.
Wild Minds
People who think about the world in unique ways you like also think about the world in unique ways you won’t like. 任何事物都有两面性，「那么，古尔丹，代价是什么呢？」
在某个方面的天才很有可能是另一个方面的疯子。
Quote
people who are abnormally good at one thing tend to be abnormally bad at something else. It’s as if the brain has capacity for only so much knowledge and emotion, and an abnormal skill robs bandwidth from other parts of someone’s personality.
本章核心，更辩证的看待其他人，不能只看到其他人辉煌的一面，也要知道这个人黑暗的一面，且这两面密不可分。
Quote
Perhaps the most important part of this topic is gaining better insight into who we should look up to, particularly who we want to be and who we want to emulate.
Wild Numbers
People don’t want accuracy. They want certainty. 人类本性是恐惧不确定性。
很真实，很多人不会关心具体数值是多少，只需要有这么一个数值让自己心安。
Quote
People don’t want accuracy. They want certainty.
现代信息化的传播让全世界发生的坏消息迅速让一个人接收，显得这个世界正在越来越糟，其实什么都没变。
Quote
But we shouldn’t be surprised that the world feels historically broken in recent years and will continue that way going forward. It’s not—we just see more of the bad stuff that’s always happened than we ever saw before.
这个世界有很多瞎扯淡的专家，是因为人类害怕不确定性，需要有这些人来做确定的预测，不管预测结果对不对。
Quote
“We need to believe we live in a predictable, controllable world, so we turn to authoritative-sounding people who promise to satisfy that need.”
不要非黑即白，在黑和白之间存在一个概率，这个概率可以帮助我们对低概率发生但是毁灭性风险提高警惕，留足够的应对。
Quote
What you always want to avoid are catastrophic risks. A pilot who crashes once every ten thousand flights is a catastrophe. But our difficulty dealing with probability and large numbers makes us overly sensitive to run-of-the-mill, inevitable risks.
Best Story Wins
Stories are always more powerful than statistics. 讲故事是一个非常重要的技能。
会讲故事的人，总会有那么一两句话振聋发聩的话，产生巨大的影响力。马丁路德金经典演讲 “I have a dream that one day …” 是在脱稿的情况下即兴发挥的；马克吐温创作 时会给家人朗读草稿，留下让家人不由自主抬头认真听的语句。
Quote
There is a saying that people don’t remember books; they remember sentences.
这个世界需要这么一些能把故事讲清楚、讲生动的人，把已有信息重新组织编排、并以合适的方式表达出来，是一种非常重要的能力。
Quote
In a perfect world, the importance of information wouldn’t rely on its author’s eloquence. But we live in a world where people are bored, impatient, emotional, and need complicated things distilled into easy-to-grasp scenes.
有些人喜欢夸夸其谈是为了秀自己懂得多，但真正聪明的人会以幽默的方式展示出来，并获得他人的尊敬。
Quote
Mark Twain said, “Humor is a way to show you’re smart without bragging.”
「因为对方没表达清楚而轻视的重要观点 & 因为对方太擅长表达而盲从的错误观点」。 在互联网行业这个能力更加重要，创始人需要给投资人表达项目愿景、产品需要表达清楚业务逻辑、开发需要表达清楚技术设计和技术价值。
Quote
Some of the most important questions to ask yourself are: Who has the right answer, but I ignore because they’re inarticulate? And what do I believe is true but is actually just good marketing?
Does Not Compute
The world is driven by forces that cannot be measured. 精确的数据没那么重要，世界运行是很复杂的。
很有趣的观点，运动员的极限并不完全体现在身体机能的极限（最大摄氧量、肺活量、肌肉强度等），还会受到大脑的压制，因为大脑的第一目标是避免死亡，会限制身体机能的上限。这是在严谨的科学数据之外，是数据所无法衡量和预测的。
Quote
Athletic performance isn’t just what you’re physically capable of. It’s what you’re capable of within the context of what your brain is willing to endure for the risk and reward in a given moment.
Calm Plants the Seeds of Crazy
Crazy doesn’t mean broken. Crazy is normal; beyond the point of crazy is normal. 这个世界总有更疯狂的人。
经济周期由此产生，历史上每一次都一样，但每次人们都说这次不一样。
Quote
• When an economy is stable, people get optimistic. • When people get optimistic, they go into debt. • When they go into debt, the economy becomes unstable. Minsky’s big idea was that stability is destabilizing.
历史上全球范围内的传染病已经很久没出现了，人们对 COVID 过于乐观结果承受了惨痛的代价；而我国经历过 SARS 所以有了一些准备（但也过于悲观带来防疫过度）。
Quote
Part of what made COVID dangerous is that we got so good at preventing pandemics in the last century that few people before 2020 assumed an infectious disease would ever impact their lives.
狂热的牛市会存在，总有那么一些人贪婪地想吃到最顶尖位置的收益，放下一切理智。
Quote
If an investment might have potential to go higher, somebody somewhere will test it to find out. People’s desire to get rich far exceeds the number of easy and obvious opportunities.
解决之道唯有知足，平均年化 15% 在积累多年后也是极高的回报，但盲目追高破产一次就得从头再来。
Quote
Just slow and steady against hard problems.
Too Much, Too Soon, Too Fast
星巴克的盲目开新店扩张策略，带来了单点顾客体验的大幅下滑，商业上并不是越多越好。
Quote
And when undisciplined growth became a strategy, we lost our way.”
少即是多，快即是慢。保持耐心和专注，等待美好的事情发生。
Quote
most great things in life—from love to careers to investing—gain their value from two things: patience and scarcity. Patience to let something grow, and scarcity to admire what it grows into.
When the Magic Happens
A good idea on steroids quickly becomes a terrible idea. 生于忧患死于安乐。
二战时期产生的大量新科技是现代优质生活的基石，而如今硅谷码农们只能做出“让广告点击率提升”这种程度的创新，究其原因，二战时期大家都面临着“做不出来大家就等死吧”的紧迫感。
Quote
Militaries are engines of innovation because they occasionally deal with problems so important—so urgent, so vital—that money and manpower are removed as obstacles, and those involved collaborate in ways that are hard to emulate during calm times.
要啥有啥什么都不缺的人生不一定是好事，会变得千篇一律，有时候我们需要一些逆境、一些可以努力为之奋斗的目标。
Quote
Be careful what you wish for. A carefree and stress-free life sounds wonderful only until you recognize the motivation and progress it prevents.
Overnight Tragedies and Long-Term Miracles
Good news comes from compounding, which always takes time, but bad news comes from a loss in confidence or a catastrophic error that can occur in a blink of an eye. 千里之堤毁于蚁穴。
增长总是很慢的，因为要面对竞争、对抗阻力；但衰退的时候这股阻力就会变成助力，所有竞争对手都会来加速这个过程。很多伟大的百年企业都是这样一夜之间崩塌的，雷曼兄弟、诺基亚、安然等。
Quote
Growth always fights against competition that slows its rise. New ideas fight for attention, business models fight incumbents, skyscrapers fight gravity. There’s always a headwind. But everyone gets out of the way of decline. Some might try to step in and slow the fall, but it doesn’t attract masses of outsiders who rush in to push back in the other direction the way progress does.
构建伟大且长期的事物总是很难，比如和平，需要各方达成共识且维持这个共识；但毁灭总是很容易，一个很小的纷争就能挑起世界大战。
Quote
“complex to make, simple to break”
Tiny and Magnificent
When little things compound into extraordinary things. 复利的奇迹。
历史上重大事件的导火索通常都很不起眼，但却引发了难以想象的后果。人们制作了强力的核弹但不敢用，于是改良并降低了威力，但这也同时降低了使用门槛，差点引发了古巴导弹危机。
Quote
Small risks weren’t the alternative to big risks; they were the trigger.
进化论就是量变引起质变的案例，每轮进化筛选都微乎其微，但叠加时间指数后就变得完全不同。
Quote
That’s the real lesson from evolution: If you have a big number in the exponent slot, you do not need extraordinary change to deliver extraordinary results.
Elation and Despair
Progress requires optimism and pessimism to coexist. 悲观和乐观中间找到一个平衡点。
储蓄时保持悲观，即使最坏的事情发生，个体也不会遭到致命打击；投资的时候乐观，最差的行情下坚定买入，坚信人类社会一定是正向发展的。
Quote
The best financial plan is to save like a pessimist and invest like an optimist.
比尔盖茨：用悲观主义保证下限，才有机会带着乐观主义不断突破上限。
Quote
What Gates seems to get is that you can only be an optimist in the long run if you’re pessimistic enough to survive the short run
总结一下就是悲观看当下，乐观看未来。
Quote
Save like a pessimist and invest like an optimist.
Plan like a pessimist and dream like an optimist.
Casualties of Perfection
There is a huge advantage to being a little imperfect. 不要追求完美。
在任何领域都不要 allin：工作填满生活就会少了思考时间，全都是思考就少了务实；满仓投资容易倾家荡产，空仓则完全拿不到收益。
Quote
If you’re honest with yourself, you’ll see that a little inefficiency is the ideal spot to be in.
越追求完美，越容易暴露弱点。
Quote
Just like evolution, the key is realizing that the more perfect you try to become, the more vulnerable you generally are.
It’s Supposed to Be Hard
Everything worth pursuing comes with a little pain. The trick is not minding that it hurts. 追求美好的事物总是要付出一些代价。
不想努力想走捷径是人类的本性，社交媒体加剧了这一点，自媒体们贩卖焦虑 ＋ 速效课程大赚。
Quote
Same goes for diets, finances, marketing … everyone wants a shortcut. It’s always been this way, but I suspect it’s getting worse as technology inflates our benchmark for how fast results should happen.
过于顺利的事情很有可能是方向错了。
Quote
If you’re efficient, you’re doing it the wrong way.
所有值得追求的事物都要付出代价，大部分不是以可见的金钱的形式。
Quote
Most things worth pursuing charge their fee in the form of stress, uncertainty, dealing with quirky people, bureaucracy, other peoples’ conflicting incentives, hassle, nonsense, long hours, and constant doubt. That’s the overhead cost of getting ahead.
Keep Running
Most competitive advantages eventually die. 没有永恒的辉煌。
体型巨大的动物在脑容量体力耐力等方面有绝对优势，但进化论并没有让所有的动植物都变得体型巨大，因为大型物种更容易成为击杀目标。
Quote
“The tendency for evolution to create larger species is counterbalanced by the tendency of extinction to kill off larger species.”
竞争优势不会长久保持，历史上许多巨头的经历。
Quote
Competitive advantages don’t stick around for long.
成功的大企业通常会骄傲、会懈怠，过去的时运、成功的路径无法在新的时代、新的规模上复刻，最终带来衰败。
Quote
But competitive advantages tend to be short-lived, often because their success plants the seeds of their own decline.
进化的残酷：任何领域都没有永恒的统治地位，因为个体的强大会促使竞争者向更强进化，周而复始永不停歇。
Quote
Evolution is ruthless and unforgiving—it doesn’t teach by showing you what works but by destroying what doesn’t.
The Wonders of the Future
It always feels like we’re falling behind, and it’s easy to discount the potential of new technology. 对未来保持希望。
科学上的小发现会引来实践者在各方面上的尝试，说不定就有某种应用未来会彻底改变人类生活，这是大多数人都预料不到的。
Quote
You can never tell what apparently small discovery will lead to. Somebody discovers something and immediately a host of experimenters and inventors are playing all the variations upon it.
Harder Than It Looks and Not as Fun as It Seems
“The grass is always greener on the side that’s fertilized with bullshit.” 包装很容易唬人。
到处都是 sales，因此我们眼中的他人会呈现出最好的一面，不好的部分会被刻意隐藏。
Quote
Everything is sales. This is usually framed as career advice—no matter what your role in a company is, your ultimate job is to help sales.
那些看起来很成功的人都也是普通人，只是获得了信息差或做对了决策； 那些在某领域很著名的人讨论其他领域观点时会自带光环，不要轻易相信； 每个人都在面对他人所看不到的困难，所以对自己对他人宽容些。
Quote
Most things are harder than they look and not as fun as they seem.
Incentives: The Most Powerful Force in the World
When the incentives are crazy, the behavior is crazy. People can be led to justify and defend nearly anything. 屁股决定脑袋。
知识付费和营销号现状。
Quote
Jason Zweig of The Wall Street Journal says there are three ways to be a professional writer:
- Lie to people who want to be lied to, and you’ll get rich.
- Tell the truth to those who want the truth, and you’ll make a living.
- Tell the truth to those who want to be lied to, and you’ll go broke.
人类都是利益驱动的，利益可能来自各方面，利益足够大的时候其他都可以违背，比如一个面对生存压力的人会无视任何法律。
Quote
People follow incentives, not advice.
人类意愿是朝着存在利益的方向，比如房价暴跌时都坚信会反弹，持有期权时都希望股价涨，重仓 A 股希望国家经济一路长虹。所谓「屁股决定脑袋」。
Quote
One of the strongest pulls of incentives is the desire for people to hear only what they want to hear and see only what they want to see.
有时治愈，尝尝帮助，总是安慰。 医生更重要的是匹配治疗方案和患者预期，最符合医学的治疗方案可能效果还不如安慰剂。
Quote
medicine is a biological science, while being a doctor is often a social skill of managing expectations, understanding the insurance system, communicating effectively, and so on.
本章的三点总结：
- 再理性的人都有可能做不理性的事情，如果利益驱动够大。
- 不理性的疯狂状态持续时间可能比想象的长。
- 当你坚信某个观点时，问问自己假如利益驱动点变了，是不是还能这么坚信。如果答案为“是”那很有可能被当前利益蒙蔽了。
Quote
Three things stick out here.
Now You Get It
Nothing is more persuasive than what you’ve experienced firsthand. 亲身体验最有发言权。
在正常情况下人人都会说「别人恐惧我贪婪」，但真的到了市场底部、恐惧的情绪蔓延到每个人身上时，能依旧保持镇定的永远是极少数。
Quote
Your personal views fall into the same trap. In investing, saying “I will be greedy when others are fearful” is easier said than done, because people underestimate how much their views and goals can change when markets break.
没有亲身经历过的事情都没法想象，无论是金钱、事业、还是人际关系。古人说「患难见真情」，能扛住最差情况下的感情最有可能长久。
Quote
People often have no idea how they’ll respond to a big windfall or an incredible gift of good luck until they’ve experienced it firsthand.
Time Horizons
Saying “I’m in it for the long run” is a bit like standing at the base of Mount Everest, pointing to the top, and saying, “That’s where I’m heading.” Well, that’s nice. Now comes the test. 长期主义不能只关注时间。
所谓的「长期主义」，最重要的不是时间尺度上的坚持，而是能长时间保持灵活应对各种变化。
Quote
Long term is less about time horizon and more about flexibility.
关于阅读和思考的长期主义：少关注有保质期的信息（各种吸引眼球的新闻），多接触长期信息并转化为知识（改变我们的思维方式、十年五十年后依旧适用的信息）。
Quote
It’s that if you read good books you’ll have an easier time understanding what you should or shouldn’t pay attention to in the news.
Trying Too Hard
There are no points awarded for difficulty. 能简单解决就别搞复杂。
看起来复杂的东西更好对外宣传，虽然真正有效解决问题的是那些简单的东西。所以科学家都在研究如何治疗癌症，因为对外看起来最高大上，但最有效的减少癌症的方法是禁烟。
Quote
The sore truth is that complexity sells better.
保持健康其实很简单，但人们更愿意关注事后补剂或养生玄学。
Quote
In health it’s sleep eight hours, move a lot, eat real food, but not too much. But what’s popular? Supplements, hacks, and pills.
- 复杂性让人们有掌控的感觉，而简单像是缺失细节。
- 可以把别人讲得云里雾里。
- 这个世界默认用长度来衡量知识量。
- 复杂的东西需要努力去弄懂，努力了就显得更珍贵。
Quote
Why are complexity and length so appealing when simplicity and brevity will do?
Wounds Heal, Scars Last
What have you experienced that I haven’t that makes you believe what you do? And would I think about the world like you do if I experienced what you have? 经历塑造了每个不同的人，求同存异。
每个人的过去经历塑造了此刻独一无二的自己，因此当和他人观点冲突时，试着换位思考。但其实说起来容易做起来很难，没法真正身临其境带入对方视角。
Quote
But usually a better question is, “What have you experienced that I haven’t that makes you believe what you do? And would I think about the world like you do if I experienced what you have?”
互联网的信息流通加剧了观点冲突，各种经历完全不同的人被放到了同一个空间来对话。
Quote
“The more the Internet exposes people to new points of view, the angrier people get that different views exist.”
Questions
回归开篇主题：与其去尝试预测根本没法预测的未来，不如回看历史找找那些永恒不变的东西。
Quote
Rather than attempting to figure out little ways the future might change, study the big things the past has never avoided.